abstract musings

abstract (adj.): Considered apart from concrete existence: an abstract concept.
musings (n.): A product of contemplation; a thought.


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Thursday, October 28, 2004

PoliPundit.com on the election

A couple of items on the election from PoliPundit.com:

  • First, Jayson gives his over/under on the Senate races. He thinks the GOP could pick up at least 4 seats. While I'd like to see things turn out that way, I'm thinking that his appraisal is overly optimistic.

    Real Clear Politics has the Senate races in South Dakota(Daschle/Thune) and Florida(Martinez/Castor) for the Republicans, but both by razor-thin margins. Jayson figures that in Alaska(Murkowski/Knowles), Murkowski will hold on to her seat, because "...we’re not even hearing much if anything from the liberal media about the Murkowski-Knowles race, which must mean, by definition, that Murkowski is poised to hold the seat", whiich is a dubious proposition since Real Clear Politics shows Knowles ahead in every poll, although the margin is shrinking. In the Louisiana(Vitter/John/Kennedy) race the lastest polling data Jayson points to is promising, as it shows Vitter clearing the 50% hurdle to avoid a runoff election, but the same article also points out that in the 2003 governor's race, Bobby Jindal lost an 11 point lead in the polls in the last four days to lose by 4 percent. He makes a good point about the Colorado race(Coors/Salazar), drawing a comparison to the 2002 Senate race in Colorado. This is possible since Bush is polling well in Colorado and has the coattails to help Coors, and Salazar seems to be avoiding John Kerry.

  • Next Lorie Byrd posts on the "Myth of the Undecided Voter". Consider this bit of conventional wisdom, like so much other conventional wisdom this year, debunked.